Chelsea vs. Arsenal | Correct Score Market

1-2 19.5

New Innings Runs Market Strategy Paying Dividends

Information on football markets is readily available reflecting in prices becoming more efficient, prices now reflect the relative risk endured - result in some 'correct' prices offered. Over the last week or so I have been perfecting my new cricket strategy with small stakes. The innings runs market is one where I believe i have more of an edge than other punters. The plan is to carry on experimenting before increasing my exposure and hopefully profit.

Premier League | Week 37

Saturday, 03 May 2008
Barclays Premier League
Aston Villa v Wigan, 15:00
Blackburn v Derby, 15:00
Bolton v Sunderland, 17:15
Fulham v Birmingham, 15:00
Man Utd v West Ham, 12:45
Middlesbrough v Portsmouth, 15:00
Reading v Tottenham, 15:00

Sunday, 04 May 2008
Barclays Premier League
Arsenal v Everton, 13:30
Liverpool v Man City, 16:00

Monday, 05 May 2008
Barclays Premier League
Newcastle v Chelsea, 16:00

Premier League | Week 36

Arsenal's visit to Pride Park: both sides have little to play for and its hard enough when both teams are going full tilt. No bet is the call here, keep the funds safe till Tuesday.

Forecasting matches towards the close of this season is easier said than done, motivation playing a big part – with ‘dead rubbers’ particularly difficult to predict. Because of this the games we will be focusing on today are:

Saturday, 26 April 2008
Barclays Premier League
Chelsea v Man Utd, 12:45
Man City v Fulham, 15:00

The premiership title could be decided tomorrow, as well as some relegation issues.

Chelsea v Man Utd is obviously the stand out tie: Chelsea are currently on the longest unbeaten sequence in the Premier League of 18, and on an phenomenal 80-match undefeated home league streak, stretching back four years and two months.

Both sides are in contention for a Premiership/European double, Ferguson will be certain to rest players against Chelsea given their must win game against Barcelona on Tuesday. Avoiding defeat at Stamford Bridge will all but seal the title for united; Ferguson’s tactics will no doubt reflect this. Chelsea on the other hand are coming into this game on the back of a great result at Anfield with one leg already in the final. Given Chelsea’s home record and a small distraction in the form of Barcelona, I will side with a:

Chelsea win @ 8/5 (Betfair) | won

Although Man City have nothing to play, Thaksin Shinawatras comments will provide more than enough incentive to ensure Sven gets a result against Fulham. Fulham wont go down without a fight as a win gives them a slim hope of surviving relegation, but I expect its all too late and I would like to think City will be able to reign. Despite a recent victory at the Madjeski Stadium, Fulham have been woeful away from home:

Man City win @ 5/6 (Bet365) | lost

UEFA Champions League | Semi-Final 1st Leg

Tuesday, 22 April 2008
UEFA Champions League
Liverpool v Chelsea, SF, L1, 19:45

Draw @ 21/10 (VC Bet) | won
Under 1.5 goals @ 8/5 (Betfair) | lost

Like most first legs of European ties between two evenly matched sides, particularly when the two sides are relatively unadventurous, the aim is often not to lose rather than to win. Neither manager will be happy if his team conceded early, and the longer the game goes goalless the less desire there will be to take risks. Expect this game to be cagey and low scoring, as the last meeting between Liverpool and Chelsea to have more than two goals was the Community Shield in August 2006, eight matches ago.

Wednesday, 23 April 2008
UEFA Champions League
Barcelona v Man Utd, SF, L1, 19:45 | Barcelona to qualify @ 13/8

This is an extremely difficult tie to call given Barcelona’s indifferent form in recent weeks, goalless draws at home to Getafe and Espanyol respectively dropped the Catalan giants into third place – 9 points off leaders Real Madrid. Combined with a shock exit in the semi-finals of the Copa Del Rey to Valencia, manager Rijkaard is under pressure to deliver against United.

Despite not firing on all cylinders domestically, in Europe they have won all five of their home ties this season including a convincing 3-0 win against Lyon.

Similarly Manchester United’s domestic form has been very ordinary of late. Draws against Middlesbrough and Blackburn Rovers have given Chelsea a sniff in the title race. This combined with an undeserved victory over Arsenal despite being outplayed for long periods, will give Barcelona confidence.

Like their illustrious opponents, United have an impressive record in Europe this season, with 3 wins and 2 draws in their previous 5 matches. In spite of this Ferguson has an abysmal away record in the knockout stages over the past 5 seasons: W2 D1 L5, proving to be tactically inept on a number of occasions despite a continuous spending spree in an attempt to rectify this problem. Comparing this with Barcelona’s fantastic record in the knockout stages over the last 5 seasons: W4 D3 L1, I am siding with Barcelona given their excellent home record in this competition.

Messi to score more goals than Ronaldo across the two legs 6/4 @ Paddy Power

Paddy Power are taking bets on a special market entitled 'Ronaldo v Messi', where the Portuguese winger is favourite to outscore his Argentinian counterpart. For those who agree with the notion that Cristiano Ronaldo is vastly overrated, especially by those who consider him the best player in the world, this bet holds good value. Remember last season when he was supposed to steal the show against Milan, and reality was outshone by Kaka, the actual best player in the world? It is more probable that Zambrotta will take care of Ronaldo, than Wes Brown taking care of Messi.

N.B: Should both players score equal number of goals, the bet will be void and Paddy Power will refund all stakes on the event.

Premier League | Week 35

Saturday, 19 April 2008
Barclays Premier League

Arsenal v Reading, 12:45 | Arsenal -1.5 asian handicaps @ evens | won
Pressure off Arsenal now, can see them playing with freedom and winning by two clear.

Fulham v Liverpool, 15:00 | Draw @ 9/4 | lost
Rafa sure to rest players for CL semi-final, forth place all but guaranteed. Fulham fighting for survial.

Middlesbrough v Bolton, 15:00 | Middlesborough @ 11/10 | lost
Boro's resurgence under Southgate continues, good home record. Lack of firepower for Bolton upfront.

West Ham v Derby, 15:00 | Over 2.5 goals @ 10/11| won
Hammers injury hit season continues- Curbishleys job on the line, will be damage limitation for Derby.

Wigan v Tottenham, 15:00 | Draw @ 12/5 | won
Spurs already on summer holidays, Wigan almost safe after point at the bridge.

Blackburn v Man Utd, 17:15 | Over 2.5 goals @ 11/10 | lost
United's last four games have all been overs, can see Rovers scoring.


Sunday, 20 April 2008
Barclays Premier League

Aston Villa v Birmingham, 12:00 | Aston Villa halftime/fulltime @ 2/1 and over 2.5 @ 11/8 | won
The Villians have scored 14 goals in their last 3 games, expecting them to come out of the traps fast against a Birmingham side who have conceded 8 in the last 3 aways games.

Newcastle v Sunderland, 13:30 | Over 2.5 @ 6/5 | lost
Keegan's knows only one way to play and that is attack, Newcastle have been scoring freely of late. Last game between the two at St. James was a 5 goal thriller. Expect at least 3 here.

Man City v Portsmouth, 16:00 | Draw @ 9/4 | lost
Difficult tie to predict, City have failed to build on a start which promised so much while Portsmouth will no doubt have one eye on the FA Cup final.

World Snooker Championships

Ding Junhui to win the World Championsips @ 14/1 (Paddy Power)

Paddy Power are offering an amazingly generous 14/1 on Ding Junhui to win the World Snooker Championships 2008. However, it would be wise not to back the Chinese wonder boy just yet. In order to get maximum value, bet on Ding at close of play on Monday evening, as he opens his campaign on Tuesday morning.

Granted Ding has one of the toughest draws a seed could have had in the opening round this year in Marco Fu, who of course is more than capable of producing what would not be the greatest of upsets. But Ding is the better player of the two, and if he manages to win as expected, he may only be on single figure odds as he enters the last sixteen.

Now there are some big names in his half of the draw, namely John Higgins, Steven Hendry, Mark Williams, and not to mention, the Rocket Ronnie O'Sullivan, but how many of them are in good form? Ding has what it takes to defeat all of these potential opponents, and will be favourite in each match until at least the semi-finals where he is due to face Ronnie.

Do not stake your whole account on Ding, just bet enough to make a very good profit should he win, but no more than what would be an insignificant loss should he fail.